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Out of these 69 insurgencies, a total of 26 came to an end through some form of negotiations. In fact, most conflicts had ended with a clear military victory, either by taking control over the seat of power, forcing a foreign power to withdraw, or by killing off the insurgents or their leaders.

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When it comes to insurgencies specifically, engaging in negotiations can often already be considered a losing move by state actors. Negotiations offer a degree of legitimacy to the insurgency, and this is a step that many governments seek to avoid as long as they can.

Insurgency - That Game Nobody Talks About

The international community has played a big part in forcing governments to cross that barrier as well, take the apartheid regime in South Africa for example when it received so much pressure from global powers that it had no choice but to compromise and allow significant political reform. What data did show, however, was that in the post-Cold War era, negotiated settlements account for a much higher share of ended insurgencies than before.

But even then, it still only amounts to about half of the insurgencies that ended during this period. Despite this light trend towards negotiated settlements, many of the negotiated settlements also still amount to little more than the formalization of a military outcome. Perhaps the increase in negotiations as a way to end insurgencies has helped fuel a perception that this is, in fact, the dominant manner in which such conflicts are resolved. The truth, however, is that in these conflicts the military balance between actors continues to be decisive in determining how they are resolved. Unless a particular situation emerges where both parties cannot achieve an outright military victory, or the cost of such a victory is perceived as being too high, there is simply no room for negotiations.

How insurgencies end

The larger point to be made, of course, is not so much on the nature of resolutions to insurgencies, but rather the use of perceptions or assumptions to inform policy. Developing and executing high level strategy is not an easy feat to begin with, but the task is only complicated further when the value of available options is warped by incomplete information.

Learning from history can be a useful tool, but some rigidity is required in identifying assumptions among facts, and especially in going back and checking those assumptions for their validity. To empower members to confidently understand and navigate acontinuously changing and complex global environment. Middle East and North Africa.

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How Insurgencies End by Ben Connable

How Insurgencies End really liked it 4. Compares a quantitative and qualitative analysis of insurgency case studies with lessons from insurgency and counterinsurgency literature. While no two insurgencies are the same, the authors find that modern insurgencies last about ten years and that a government's chance of winning may increase slightly over time. Paperback , pages. To see what your friends thought of this book, please sign up. To ask other readers questions about How Insurgencies End , please sign up.

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Lots of good information, but fails to really address the title question head on. Worth reading, lots of graphs and sources to follow up with. Jane rated it really liked it Mar 01, Anna rated it liked it Oct 12, Dauda Owolabi rated it it was amazing May 21, Ilsa van den Broeck rated it it was amazing Sep 08, Jon Klug rated it really liked it Nov 13, Jack McCain rated it it was amazing Jul 12, Jim Stout rated it really liked it Jan 12, Duyilemi Stephen rated it it was amazing May 21,