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The hypothesis that forward prices are the best unbiased forecast of future spot prices is often presented in the economic and financial analysis of futures markets. This paper considers the hypothesis independently of its implications for rational expectations or market efficiency and in order to stress this fact, the term "speculative efficiency" is used to characterize the state envisaged under the hypothesis. If a market is subject to efficient speculation, the supply of speculative funds is infinitely elastic at the forward price that is equal to the expected future spot price.

The expected future spot price is a market price determined as the solution to the underlying rational expectations macroeconomic model. Although the paper is primarily concerned with testing this hypothesis in the foreign exchange market, the methodology introduced in the paper is of general application to all futures markets. International Trade and Investment , International Finance and Macroeconomics The hypothesis that forward prices are the best unbiased forecast of future spot prices is often presented in the economic and financial analysis of futures markets.


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Flood and Taylor Exchange Rate Economics: What's Wrong with the Conventional Macro Approach? Development of the American Economy. There are three main core conditions for Pareto efficiency which are also useful for analysis of economic efficiency:. All the produced goods ought to be distributed to the individuals for whom they are most valuable.

Rational Expectations And Efficiency In Futures Markets

Consequently, there does not occur a situation where trade or exchange could make two individuals better off. Trade is feasible when marginal rate of substitution of two individuals differs.


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However, in the case of exchange efficiency, the same marginal rate of substitution for all individuals is required. For competitive markets to reach exchange efficiency, each individual is supposed to always face the same price. Taking into account the resources possessed by society, increase in production of one good is not possible without reducing production of another good. To analyze production efficiency of any economy, there are usually used isocost and isoquants lines.

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Production efficiency is reached in competitive markets when firms face the same price. The produced goods have to meet the desires of the individuals. Thus, for market to be efficient, we need to take into account individuals' preferences and what is technically possible. Analysis is feasible using the production possibilities schedule which should lead to the highest level of utility. Utility can be achieved when the indifference curve and the production possibilities schedule are tangent.

In the case of product mix efficiency it is expected that marginal rate of substitution is equal to the marginal rate of transformation where the marginal rate of transformation expresses the slope of the production possibilities schedule. It is common for competitive market to have product mix efficiency. Investors, including the likes of Warren Buffett , [39] and researchers have disputed the efficient-market hypothesis both empirically and theoretically.

Behavioral economists attribute the imperfections in financial markets to a combination of cognitive biases such as overconfidence , overreaction, representative bias, information bias , and various other predictable human errors in reasoning and information processing. These errors in reasoning lead most investors to avoid value stocks and buy growth stocks at expensive prices, which allow those who reason correctly to profit from bargains in neglected value stocks and the overreacted selling of growth stocks.

Behavioral psychology approaches to stock market trading are among some of the more promising [ citation needed ] alternatives to EMH and some [ which? But Nobel Laureate co-founder of the programme Daniel Kahneman —announced his skepticism of investors beating the market: It's just not going to happen. For example, one prominent finding in Behaviorial Finance is that individuals employ hyperbolic discounting.

It is demonstrably true that bonds , mortgages , annuities and other similar financial instruments subject to competitive market forces do not. Any manifestation of hyperbolic discounting in the pricing of these obligations would invite arbitrage thereby quickly eliminating any vestige of individual biases.

Similarly, diversification , derivative securities and other hedging strategies assuage if not eliminate potential mispricings from the severe risk-intolerance loss aversion of individuals underscored by behavioral finance. On the other hand, economists, behaviorial psychologists and mutual fund managers are drawn from the human population and are therefore subject to the biases that behavioralists showcase.

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By contrast, the price signals in markets are far less subject to individual biases highlighted by the Behavioral Finance programme. Richard Thaler has started a fund based on his research on cognitive biases. In a report he identified complexity and herd behavior as central to the global financial crisis of Further empirical work has highlighted the impact transaction costs have on the concept of market efficiency, with much evidence suggesting that any anomalies pertaining to market inefficiencies are the result of a cost benefit analysis made by those willing to incur the cost of acquiring the valuable information in order to trade on it.

Additionally the concept of liquidity is a critical component to capturing "inefficiencies" in tests for abnormal returns. Any test of this proposition faces the joint hypothesis problem, where it is impossible to ever test for market efficiency, since to do so requires the use of a measuring stick against which abnormal returns are compared —one cannot know if the market is efficient if one does not know if a model correctly stipulates the required rate of return. Consequently, a situation arises where either the asset pricing model is incorrect or the market is inefficient, but one has no way of knowing which is the case.

The performance of stock markets is correlated with the amount of sunshine in the city where the main exchange is located. A key work on random walk was done in the late s by Profs. Andrew Lo and Craig MacKinlay; they effectively argue that a random walk does not exist, nor ever has.

Efficient-market hypothesis

While event studies of stock splits are consistent with the EMH Fama, Fisher, Jensen, and Roll, , other empirical analyses have found problems with the efficient-market hypothesis. Early examples include the observation that small neglected stocks and stocks with high book-to-market low price-to-book ratios value stocks tended to achieve abnormally high returns relative to what could be explained by the CAPM. It should be noted that these risk factor models are not properly founded on economic theory whereas CAPM is founded on Modern Portfolio Theory , but rather, constructed with long-short portfolios in response to the observed empirical EMH anomalies.

For instance, the "small-minus-big" SMB factor in the FF3 factor model is simply a portfolio that holds long positions on small stocks and short positions on large stocks to mimic the risks small stocks face. These risk factors are said to represent some aspect or dimension of undiversifiable systematic risk which should be compensated with higher expected returns. See also Robert Haugen. Economists Matthew Bishop and Michael Green claim that full acceptance of the hypothesis goes against the thinking of Adam Smith and John Maynard Keynes , who both believed irrational behavior had a real impact on the markets.

Economist John Quiggin has claimed that " Bitcoin is perhaps the finest example of a pure bubble", and that it provides a conclusive refutation of EMH. Tshilidzi Marwala surmised that artificial intelligence influences the applicability of the theory of the efficient market hypothesis in that the more artificial intelligence infused computer traders there are in the markets as traders the more efficient the markets become. Warren Buffett has also argued against EMH, most notably in his presentation The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville , saying the preponderance of value investors among the world's best money managers rebuts the claim of EMH proponents that luck is the reason some investors appear more successful than others.

The financial crisis of —08 led to renewed scrutiny and criticism of the hypothesis. At the International Organization of Securities Commissions annual conference, held in June , the hypothesis took center stage. Martin Wolf , the chief economics commentator for the Financial Times , dismissed the hypothesis as being a useless way to examine how markets function in reality. Paul McCulley , managing director of PIMCO , was less extreme in his criticism, saying that the hypothesis had not failed, but was "seriously flawed" in its neglect of human nature.

The financial crisis led Richard Posner , a prominent judge, University of Chicago law professor, and innovator in the field of Law and Economics, to back away from the hypothesis. Posner accused some of his Chicago School colleagues of being "asleep at the switch", saying that "the movement to deregulate the financial industry went too far by exaggerating the resilience—the self healing powers—of laissez-faire capitalism. Despite this, Fama has conceded that "poorly informed investors could theoretically lead the market astray" and that stock prices could become "somewhat irrational" as a result.

Critics have suggested that financial institutions and corporations have been able to reduce the efficiency of financial markets by creating private information and reducing the accuracy of conventional disclosures, and by developing new and complex products which are challenging for most market participants to evaluate and correctly price. The theory of efficient markets has been practically applied in the field of Securities Class Action Litigation.

Efficient market theory, in conjunction with " fraud-on-the-market theory ," has been used in Securities Class Action Litigation to both justify and as mechanism for the calculation of damages. From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia. This article needs additional citations for verification.

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